Why Ethereum Will Never Reach Another ATH

in ethereum •  4 months ago

On Jan 13, 2018 Ethereum reached it's all time high of $1,448.18, and it will never, ever, be that valuable again. You're probably thinking, what the actual f*ck?

wtf.png

Well it's true, and you need to accept it, or you are never going to make it.

I am Sensei Ether, and I'm going to tell you why.

If you go to CoinGecko there's an interface that shows the ATH of popular cryptocurrencies and how much they have fallen since. The ATH of Bitcoin was $19,665.39 on Dec 16, 2017. In the volatile year that followed, Bitcoin lost close to 90% of its value. It's recovered some, and sits at 58% of it's value from ATH. Ethereum as you can see below, hasn't fared nearly as well.

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At press time Ethereum is $211.15, only 14% of its value since ATH. In this article we will cover the reasons why this happened and make a case for why it will never again reach ATH. The first reason is simple and obvious: the ICO Craze of 2017.

In 2017, it became easy for anyone with a basic understanding of computers to create their own ERC-20 token on the Ethereum block-chain. If you invested in cryptocurrency during this time you probably remember being able to recklessly throw money at the newest ERC-20 fad and make a quick and easy 200% on your initial investment. Many of these ERC-20 tokens were created by people incapable of maintaining the insane evaluations given to them by speculators, who were high on dumb money. Eventually, anyone who didn't sell the top would regret ever hearing the names of the ERC-20 investments they made, as most alts slowly went to zero.

The ICO Craze of 2017 is sometimes referred to as Alt Season, and often by people who have no real clue what they are talking about. The only Alt Season that has ever existed is dumb money using Bitcoin profits to recklessly gamble on ICO/IEOs, and that's the only Alt Season that will ever exist. The reason that Ethereum became so valuable during this time is because you needed Ethereum to participate in "Alt Season", it was the perfect storm for Ethereum and for a number of reasons, it will never happen again.

  1. Crypto investors are smarter than they were in 2017. The people who made money in 2017 already sold the top, and the ones who didn't learned an expensive lesson. Anyone who watched their portfolio slowly circle the drain because of some bad Alt investments are going to be less willing to invest in some random ERC-20 fad.

  2. Ethereum no longer has a monopoly on ICOs. You have Tron, EOS, Binance Chain etc. All else being equal, you could divide the Ethereum ATH by the number of competitors dividing Ether's previous ICO monopoly, and you'd have a sensible future price evaluation.

  3. Regulations. Every day, crypto becomes less and less of a wild wild west than it was the day before. You see legacy software companies like Facebook trying to enter the market, and you see more and more regulations. Let's be honest, Ethereum would have never reached $1400 if everyone trying to purchase it was forced to do KYC and AML.

So what will happen to Ether? In next week's follow up we will give our long term price prediction and how we came to that conclusion.

-Ether Sensei
ether-price-prediction.jpeg

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Welcome to Steem. Pretty good post but I needed to downvote you for 2 reasons.

I think you went a bit heavy on the vote buying for your first post. You could be as high as third on both the 'introduceyourself' and 'ethereum' tags with a payout as low as 10 STU (the dollar value you see on your post). You could also use the 'steemleo' tag for your content to appear on this tribe. If you pay for promotion on steemleo, you can get on the top of the trending page for less than a dollar. I think 30 Leo will get you at the top or near the top of trending for most of the life of the post. It is very easy to do. There is a 'promote' button at the bottom of SteemLeo post. The amount you pay is burned and is therefore good for the community. if you want top learn more about tribes, I would recommend going to Steempeak.

The second reason I downvoted is because you downvoted other users who are trying to offer you good advice. I do not like this attitude. There is a lot to learn on Steem. I have been here over 2 years and I am still learning. I wish you all the best.

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Thanks for pointing this out & skipping in the effort!

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No problem. I hope the OP finds it useful.

Posted using Partiko Android

.... a bit overly bid-botted. In the future, please leave some of the reward pool for the others. We are having a shared economy here.

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"I remember back when I submitted my first #introduceyourself post and went a little crazy with the bid bots"...

Said no one ever... :-)

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Oh I see, it's an #introduceyourself.
Hopefully @ethsensei wont continue at this pace.

But it kinda shows how people view this platform. Unfortunately.

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I don't understand what the problem is.

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Thanks bid bot police, no one really cares how much he spent on bid bots. In fact, if he is willing to pay extra sbd to promote his post I'm taking him more seriously. Your comment is a distraction for readers and should be replaced by an automated bot that watch over bid bots

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Great idea!

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You're exactly right. Either one of them could have done the exact same thing I did. It seems like they have a dislike for the bots, no matter how they are used, which I can understand. But they really shouldn't waste time critiquing my use of them, they both seem to be grown men, you would think they had more important things to do.

Thanks for saying what everyone is thinking.

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I think it has been demonstrated that people do care, particularly people with stake in the platform who actually care about protecting the reward pool from abuse. You are entitled to your opinion, but are equally as ignorant to the OP.

And the whole system is designed to be self-policing. Some of us actually bother to participate in that effort. I shouldn't have to explain that either.

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I don't understand how steemit works. I'm an eth dev and investor. I used $70 to promote the post with bots. Is that not what they are for?

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as usually, the captain is right. Listen to him, instead of downvoing him, @ethsensei.

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I checked both of your blogs and didn't see any content that was as good as what I posted. I think you are trolls.

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Bid bots are a contract between you and the bot operator, they are not an inherent feature of this blockchain. As @captainklaus said, if people feel you are being disproportionately rewarded, they can return some of those rewards to the reward pool. It's your choice if you want to take that personally, but it's a bad idea, especially if those people are attempting to explain the mechanics to you.

I find it strange that you are so new to STEEM and were able to bid bot your first post, but don't understand the wider implications.

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You guys seem crazy to me. Here's my take:

  1. bid bots are legit or the steem police wouldn't allow it to happen
  2. you guys are mad because I used them
  3. ???
  4. profit
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There is no STEEM police, it's self policing. Watch.

Flagged for bit bot abuse and retaliatory flagging @steemflagrewards

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And that's how you get muted. Cheers.

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STEEM police!!! that guy's fantastic!

Thanks for participating here, @joshman.
and to wrap it up some !popcorn.

Flagged for bit bot abuse and retaliatory flagging @steemflagrewards

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The downvoters are the Steem police.

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As mentioned in the whitepaper:
Every day the reward pool is distributed among all post, according to the upvotes.
If you take a huge chunk, there is less for the others.
You are also taking a part of the reward pool that is in no proportion to the content you provide.

On steem, as there is no police, everyone has to decide for themselves, what's ok and what not.
In my humble opinion, the use of bidbots beyond a payout of 50 is not ok; also people notice this and take you less seriously.
The fairest way is to constantly provide good content, maybe invest 5-10 steem here and there for bidbots, be consistent and patient.
Greed's the biggest killer of all.

btw.: As you said, you pay for it. The profit goes to bidbots.

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people also might frown upon self-upvoting comments.

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and: A downvote is a very bad reply to serious critizism. I mean, I spend time here explaining steem to you.
Shows how new you are. I'd tread carefully.

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Why don't you spend more on bid bots or make better content, isn't that how a free market works? Are you a socialist/communist?

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Are you a socialist/communist?

Are you entitled?

Do you notice I am not downvoting all of your comments I disagree with? This is because I understand the mechanics of STEEM. Downvotes are not personal attacks, the fact you are viewing them that way and retaliating says a lot. The fact you did used a service that most people don't on their very first post, doesn't absolve you of the reward mechanics of STEEM. The free market as you stated, means that people can return rewards to the pool if they feel a post is over-rewarded. Over $100 for a few paragraphs and a photo is disproportionately higher rewards than others get for similar content.

Perhaps if you are new you should take the time to actually learn the mechanics of it, or at the very least, be more receptive to people attempting to explain them to you.

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Very well said...

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thats insane!!!

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what exactly is insane here @lilgabesta?

I feel your slice of the reward pie is too large 1.jpg

I think ETH still has a long way to go and while the ICO craze artificially pumped the price there is still value in the chain and with companies like consensus using ETH to build products for corporates the chain will get more sustainable use and value over time

Alts are under appreciated. Eth is starting to grow on me a little bit. I haven’t done too many transactions yet but I’m noticing more tools being built on eth that I can actually use. I think they’re stepping things up a bit, it may take a long time but I think eth will see some good growth beyond where it is now.

Posted using Partiko iOS

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Maybe, but I'm not buying the hopium. There's no reason Ether should see another ATH.

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Every single time bitcoin has bubbled, litecoin etc etc over the last 10 years it felt like the ingredients that made it happen will never happen again. You will wonder where the hell all the buyers are coming from soon and why they are coming now and not before. When people with money smell momentum and confirmation there is no limit as to how much money starts to come down on to the tables of the casino. Trust me.

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Maybe, but I don't see any reason why Ether should hit another ATH.

The problem with ETH is that the development is way to slow in my opinion. There didn't happen a lot since the cat game that caused a lot of trouble.

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A whole DeFi ecosystem has been developed since then (Decentralized Finance, starting with DAI). Not as fun as CryptoKitties, but more useful.

Wow that's a lot... How about steem wouldn't it be nice if it at least touch a new ATH even 1 cent high only.

Honestly, ETH has a much higher chance to overthrow its previeus ATH than bitcoin or any other HODL crypto. It will be determined by adoption and use cases. Bitcoin was a revolution and an experiment – ETH is a crypto that is looking into the future.

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The price will be determined by what people are willing to pay for it, that being said, I believe the crypto ecosystem will head towards a multi trillion dollar market cap in the coming years with BTC and ETH leading the way.


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Nice article. However, never is a bold claim. The main argument here is that ether reached an ATH due to the stupidity and recklessness of early adopters, lack of competition to the Ethereum blockchain as smart contract facilitator, and regulatory bodies. Even now the amount of people investing in crypto is increasing (that goes without saying that a large percentage, are, at least reckless). Furthermore, I don’t believe TRON, Binance Chain, EOS or NEO have the same number of (professional) developers --- although that is changing. I honestly think we’ll see a new ATH, however, probably we are another 10 years along.

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With so many competitors for Ether, give me one good reason why it will see another ATH.

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If even half of the ETH tokens deliver on their business cases AND the ethereum blockchain can keep pace with their technological roadmap then this will drive the price of ether up again. Of course my second point must hold since if ethereum cannot scale then token projects with migrate. I do think that the competitors to ethereum will actually drive all projects up. Investors will see the market mature and then we will have a new ATH for all the worthy coins/tokens.

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If even half of the ETH tokens deliver on their business cases

I wholeheartedly agree. But as someone who has created multiple ERC20 tokens, that is a pipe dream. The absolute best case scenario is 10% of all ERC20s delivering on their business cases, and even if that were to happen (it's closer to 1%) we must also consider that ERC20 and Ether in general is an extremely speculative investment, meaning that you buy the hype and sell the news, because the news is always weaker than the hype.

It's over for Ether.

It might hit $500 again but it's never going to $1400, the same as the other 99% of coins that have pumped and dumped.

I just vote you man i think you can do thesame for me too.

Congratulations @ethsensei!
Your post was mentioned in the Steem Hit Parade in the following categories:

  • Comments - Ranked 6 with 62 comments
  • Pending payout - Ranked 3 with $ 115,62
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Thank you :)

It looks so Great!! I have no idea about the bot

Posted using Partiko iOS

Sad.

Nice analysis!

It might... but it would be a repulsive crying shame if it did. !giphy teardrops

Posted using Partiko Android

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Very convincing arguments. Nevertheless the same can be said for almost any cryptos.

It depends on your point of entry. If you invested in ETH in 2016, even at around $200 a token, your gain would have been fantastic. So timing is everything.

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Most definitely. I wish I would have bought 5000 Ether when they were $1 each.

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Such a huge question and it was explained really well in here! Great job! @ethsensei

Interesting post, thanks! I've been hearing a lot of chatter about "defi" (decentralized finance) being built on Ethereum, which could propel it back to the top. Since you didn't mention defi I was wondering whether you were aware of these projects, or just didn't think they were worth mentioning. Cheers

このような素晴らしい記事!

Welcome to steemit @ethsensei.

Welcome the new steemians. Have a great day!

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i could not agree with you.....

Thank you for the useful insight. I invested in ETH earlier this year and I was wondering where the tendencies are heading. Still keeping my optimism that it will worth it :)

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